{"conclusion":"Not supported: no statistically significant supplier drift beyond the placebo control. No trading signal is published.","signalPublished":false,"sameDayLinkagePriced":true,"method":"Market model vs SPY (estimation [-250,-11], re-estimated every 21 trading days); signed by customer shock; placebo = 5 random unlinked suppliers per event; t-stats clustered by event date; one primary specification, robustness rows reported but not selected from.","sample":{"links":586,"dateEnd":"2026-10-08","customers":121,"dateStart":"2021-10-08","suppliers":162,"symbolsPriced":277,"linksWithPrices":567,"approxLinkDateShare":0.5972696245733788},"caveats":["Prior-period links use fiscal period end + 75 days as an assumed disclosure date; only latest-filing links use the actual filing date.","Coverage is limited to US-listed customers and suppliers with named, ticker-resolved customers in SEC XBRL.","Gross of transaction costs; small-cap suppliers can be illiquid.","Abnormal returns use a single-factor market model; industry co-movement is addressed only through the placebo control."],"primary":{"linked":{"n":1771,"p":0.04310707577008174,"t":2.0226709901470667,"mean":0.005825586797870041,"dates":393,"hitRate":0.5313382269904009},"window":[1,5],"placebo":{"n":1771,"p":0.02839225696893819,"t":2.1918234169436115,"mean":0.002927142499885491,"dates":393},"threshold":3,"unpricedOnDay0":{"n":1098,"p":0.19540930448326882,"t":1.2947418635607508,"mean":0.004237554185814374,"dates":334},"linkedMinusPlacebo":{"n":1771,"p":0.3636998880992988,"t":0.9083376021843739,"mean":0.0028984442979845485,"dates":393},"supplierDay0SameSign":{"n":1771,"p":9.826132958888691e-10,"t":6.112209062430827,"mean":0.011467611845444863,"dates":393}},"examples":[{"date":"2024-08-02","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"UPS","customerZ":-4.6,"supplierCar":-0.008262256515582735,"revenueShare":0.11800000000000001,"supplierDay0":-0.00032652090924880847,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2024-08-02","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"JAKK","customerZ":-4.6,"supplierCar":-0.05639620775909702,"revenueShare":0.105,"supplierDay0":-0.05036827997105789,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2024-08-02","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"NWL","customerZ":-4.6,"supplierCar":-0.13644296498580294,"revenueShare":0.13,"supplierDay0":0.012903364680555786,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2024-08-02","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"HBB","customerZ":-4.6,"supplierCar":0.21755249215822325,"revenueShare":0.24,"supplierDay0":-0.018455402299882004,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2024-11-01","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"UPS","customerZ":4.1,"supplierCar":-0.041660805475883037,"revenueShare":0.11800000000000001,"supplierDay0":-0.0020096187318813935,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2024-11-01","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"JAKK","customerZ":4.1,"supplierCar":-0.053552089051146556,"revenueShare":0.105,"supplierDay0":-0.05843483509256502,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2024-11-01","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"NWL","customerZ":4.1,"supplierCar":-0.002784506547700849,"revenueShare":0.13,"supplierDay0":-0.005152741936078679,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2024-11-01","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"HBB","customerZ":4.1,"supplierCar":-0.25132486599001796,"revenueShare":0.24,"supplierDay0":-0.045872749453234336,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2025-04-04","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"UPS","customerZ":3.7,"supplierCar":-0.027143815912120006,"revenueShare":0.11800000000000001,"supplierDay0":0.005932466493704505,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2025-04-04","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"ATER","customerZ":3.7,"supplierCar":-0.06121684871141515,"revenueShare":0.92,"supplierDay0":-0.005292897533649463,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2025-04-04","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"SMPL","customerZ":3.7,"supplierCar":0.09868770928570253,"revenueShare":0.18,"supplierDay0":-0.008423453976870103,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2025-04-04","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"HOUR","customerZ":3.7,"supplierCar":-0.10904381488687798,"revenueShare":0.99,"supplierDay0":0.006165933814911317,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2025-04-04","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"JAKK","customerZ":3.7,"supplierCar":-0.14804365461701072,"revenueShare":0.106,"supplierDay0":0.011745121448914306,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2025-04-04","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"NWL","customerZ":3.7,"supplierCar":-0.13978235433071662,"revenueShare":0.15,"supplierDay0":0.007002263194006347,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2025-04-04","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"HBB","customerZ":3.7,"supplierCar":-0.09943582786170924,"revenueShare":0.24,"supplierDay0":0.07021734145732664,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2025-04-04","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"NXPL","customerZ":3.7,"supplierCar":-0.1274987636792478,"revenueShare":0.32799999999999996,"supplierDay0":-0.07566820655551341,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2025-04-04","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"KRNT","customerZ":3.7,"supplierCar":0.08030014737237248,"revenueShare":0.3,"supplierDay0":0.03334321752557326,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2025-08-01","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"UPS","customerZ":-4.8,"supplierCar":0.015189542312078853,"revenueShare":0.11800000000000001,"supplierDay0":-0.006417167322349296,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2025-08-01","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"ATER","customerZ":-4.8,"supplierCar":-0.0009711998642502953,"revenueShare":0.92,"supplierDay0":-0.01370455064278715,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2025-08-01","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"SMPL","customerZ":-4.8,"supplierCar":-0.029520395999033534,"revenueShare":0.18,"supplierDay0":-0.0040446502841783895,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2025-08-01","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"HOUR","customerZ":-4.8,"supplierCar":0.01386530660683967,"revenueShare":0.99,"supplierDay0":-0.026449763935783493,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2025-08-01","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"JAKK","customerZ":-4.8,"supplierCar":-0.07621420264569748,"revenueShare":0.106,"supplierDay0":-0.009990512793040213,"approxLinkDate":true},{"date":"2025-08-01","customer":"AMZN","supplier":"MSN","customerZ":-4.8,"supplierCar":0.08018555031249974,"revenueShare":0.39,"s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earns same-signed abnormal return on days +1..+5 after a >=3 sigma abnormal move of a disclosed major customer, in excess of random unlinked suppliers on the same dates.","robustness":[{"linked":{"n":2734,"p":0.11398193417577239,"t":1.5805457623278651,"mean":0.0031932076041945264,"dates":496,"hitRate":0.5303584491587418},"window":[1,5],"placebo":{"n":2734,"p":0.8293850629514004,"t":0.2154903556604926,"mean":0.00023348304486687618,"dates":496},"threshold":2.5,"unpricedOnDay0":{"n":1692,"p":0.4402838266253513,"t":0.7717139890380621,"mean":0.0017110813088573717,"dates":437},"linkedMinusPlacebo":{"n":2734,"p":0.19735572761572975,"t":1.2891218858007474,"mean":0.0029597245593276506,"dates":496},"supplierDay0SameSign":{"n":2734,"p":3.997711025220153e-19,"t":8.93702965498927,"mean":0.012507412243338843,"dates":496}},{"linked":{"n":1767,"p":0.28381970411307555,"t":1.071778156281235,"mean":0.004630005708431617,"dates":390,"hitRate":0.5189586870401811},"window":[1,10],"placebo":{"n":1767,"p":0.39450578609184234,"t":0.8514745622322555,"mean":0.0016055277723332803,"dates":390},"threshold":3,"unpricedOnDay0":{"n":1094,"p":0.2485092761142967,"t":1.1539778280688349,"mean":0.005647125408513579,"dates":331},"linkedMinusPlacebo":{"n":1767,"p":0.517202908521816,"t":0.6476629864163493,"mean":0.003024477936098327,"dates":390},"supplierDay0SameSign":{"n":1767,"p":1.1390452784451415e-9,"t":6.088596853737819,"mean":0.011508046291987985,"dates":390}}],"generatedAt":"2026-10-08T17:15:26.666Z"}