Intelligence · official records, checked

What changed in the economy this year, and what did not hold up.

Every signal on this page comes from an official record (SEC annual filings, EU tender notices) and links to it. Every trading idea we tested is listed with its result, including the ones that failed.

—customer-dependence changes in the latest annual filings
—open public contracts in — countries
—trading ideas passed our tests
—last refresh, UTC
01

Who became more, or less, dependent on one customer

From each company's latest annual SEC filing: a customer's share of its revenue this fiscal year against last year. A rising share is concentration risk; a falling or lost customer can mean a contract ended.

The complete dataset — every disclosed customer relationship with share, period and source, refreshed weekly, as CSV or API.

Get the dependency data · $99 / month
02

Trading ideas we tested, and the verdict

We only call an idea supported after it survives trading costs and out-of-sample testing. Negative results stay public.

    03

    Open public contracts in digital and energy infrastructure

    Official EU tender notices (TED), one row per notice. Open a notice for its value, lots and deadline. Listed suppliers are companies in our graph with a matching capability, not bidders.

      RESEARCH WORKSPACE

      Explore the underlying graph, markets and event research

      The tools behind the signals above: relationship hypotheses from live headlines, global market context, the evidence graph and event research. Everything below is exploratory unless marked as verified.

      ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY ATLAS

      See the system behind the event.

      Trace infrastructure, capital and supply relationships through second- and third-order effects.

      4 transmission models— title matchesHypothesis awaiting verificationSource-backed models ready · loading current events
      CONDITIONAL IMPACT MAP

      AI → power infrastructure

      TRIGGER CONDITION · UNVERIFIEDIf data-center capacity or computing demand increases
      POTENTIAL RELATIVE ADVANTAGE

      Grid-equipment and power-infrastructure suppliers, conditional on confirmed orders, capacity and margins.

      POTENTIAL PRESSURE

      Data-center projects waiting for connections and operators unable to pass on costs.

      SELECTED LINK · 1. ORDER

      Data-center load

      New computing capacity can increase power density and demand for uninterrupted electricity.

      Metric to monitor
      Commissioned MW; actual electricity consumption
      Impact horizon
      Commissioning schedule
      Evidence status
      Source-backed general mechanism; event-specific transmission is unverified.
      Pricing
      Not assessed · no trade signal generated

      What invalidates it?

      Cancellations, low utilization or efficiency gains that offset additional load weaken the chain.

      Alternative explanation

      Grid renewal or industrialization may explain equipment demand instead of AI.

      Evidence desk

      IEA · Energy and AI2025 · General mechanism source · not confirmation of today’s eventLAST 30 DAYS · TITLE MATCHES

      A title match is only a research candidate, not verification of event direction, contracts or causality.

      Loading event feed…

      Coverage and methodology

      Four source-backed mechanism models. Awaiting current source feeds.

      Connections are editorial economic models. Titles are matched by keywords, without full-document analysis. Sector relevance does not identify the contract winner. Scores are not calibrated probabilities or claims of automatic profit.

      US OFFICIAL FILINGS46SEC EDGAR
      EU PROCUREMENT200TED active notices
      RELATIONSHIP GRAPH284475 active edges
      GLOBAL MARKETS31US · EU · Asia · LatAm
      GLOBAL MARKET LAYER

      Cross-region market confirmation

      Live company-level confirmation across US, European and Asian technology, energy, banking and logistics exposure.

      Updated 06:02 AM
      SPYUS · Benchmark
      +0.6%
      778.57 USD
      S&P 500 benchmark5D +0.5%Vol 0.5×
      NETUS · Internet Infrastructure
      +5.6%
      360.93 USD
      Cloudflare5D +0.4%Vol 1.0×
      NVDAUS · AI & Semiconductors
      -0.5%
      229.28 USD
      NVIDIA5D -4.0%Vol 0.7×
      MSFTUS · Cloud & AI
      +2.4%
      535.07 USD
      Microsoft5D +1.9%Vol 0.9×
      AMZNUS · Cloud & Logistics
      +3.3%
      262.43 USD
      Amazon5D +4.4%Vol 1.0×
      GOOGLUS · AI & Cloud
      +1.0%
      351.66 USD
      Alphabet5D +1.5%Vol 0.7×
      METAUS · AI Infrastructure
      -0.3%
      718.67 USD
      Meta Platforms5D -3.1%Vol 0.7×
      AAPLUS · Consumer Technology
      -1.1%
      336.64 USD
      Apple5D +1.1%Vol 1.0×
      AVGOUS · AI & Networking
      +0.4%
      361.54 USD
      Broadcom5D -0.3%Vol 0.7×
      AMDUS · Semiconductors
      -2.0%
      608.1 USD
      AMD5D -3.7%Vol 0.7×
      ORCLUS · Cloud & Enterprise
      +4.2%
      141.4 USD
      Oracle5D -0.8%Vol 0.9×
      JPMUS · Banking
      +0.5%
      332.99 USD
      JPMorgan Chase5D +0.2%Vol 0.7×
      RELATIONSHIP GRAPH

      Highest-confidence relationships

      166 evidenced
      01
      kap:1676983 → company:THYAOofficial disclosure by
      source record
      source
      100/100
      02
      kap:1676942 → company:MIATKofficial disclosure by
      source record
      source
      100/100
      03
      sec:0001046179-26-000680 → company:TSMofficial disclosure by
      source record
      source
      100/100
      04
      sec:0001171843-26-006483 → company:SHELofficial disclosure by
      source record
      source
      100/100
      05
      sec:0001104659-26-114191 → company:BABAofficial disclosure by
      source record
      source
      100/100
      06
      sec:0000093410-26-000192 → company:CVXofficial disclosure by
      source record
      source
      100/100
      Economic intelligence / Decision research

      From disruption
      to a decision.

      Trace infrastructure events into market exposure. Inspect the evidence, measure the costs, and test what remains.

      Research & paper environmentAwaiting observation
      Recent signals—Infrastructure → listed exposure
      Market feeds— / 4Kraken · Coinbase / BTC · ETH
      Archived snapshots—Timestamped order-book observations
      Held-out trades—Historical validation

      Connecting the evidence.

      Loading recorded incidents, market depth and validation results.

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      REGIONAL PACK · TÜRKİYE

      Local evidence layer

      KAP disclosures, local procurement and BIST confirmation remain available as a regional data pack — not the primary global product.

      Optional regional layer
      KAP OFFICIAL DISCLOSURES0
      PUBLIC PROCUREMENT0
      BIST CONFIRMATION0